Earlier this week, the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, disclosed that security agencies were actively investigating allegations of a "potential connection" between the demise of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh Khalistani separatist, and the government of India. Nijjar had been fatally shot in his vehicle three months earlier, near a Sikh temple in a Vancouver suburb.

Both sides have engaged in a series of retaliatory actions in response to Trudeau's initial statement. India reacted by accusing Canada of diverting its attention away from Khalistani separatist "terrorists" within the country. Furthermore, India issued a cautionary message to its citizens in Canada, including the numerous students enrolled in Canadian institutions, urging them to exercise the utmost caution.

It appears that India has also suspended visa services for Canadian nationals. BLS International, the visa outsourcing service provider, officially announced on its website that, "Due to operational reasons, as of September 21, 2023, Indian visa services have been temporarily suspended until further notice."

Canada has announced its intention to make "adjustments" to its diplomatic presence in India to ensure the safety of its nationals on the ground. However, it emphasised that its high commission and all consulates in India will remain "open and operational."

On September 19, one diplomat had already been expelled from India. The Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi revealed that the High Commissioner of Canada to India had been "summoned" and informed of this decision. The diplomat is required to depart India by September 24.

The ministry stated, "The decision reflects the Government of India's growing concern about the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities."

Mike Henniger, Chief Operating Officer at Illume Student Advisory Services, remarked that the rapid escalation and intensity of the diplomatic dispute have caught everyone by surprise.

This is not the first time that the education sector has faced challenges due to diplomatic tensions with key source countries for international students. In 2018, the sector found itself embroiled in a conflict when Canada's Foreign Minister raised concerns about human rights issues in Saudi Arabia. As a result of this dispute, Saudi students who were recipients of government scholarships were instructed to leave the country.

Rohinton Medhora, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, commented earlier this week on BNN Bloomberg, emphasising that the outcome of such disputes often hinges on how each country's government manages the situation's public relations and strategic aspects.

While there is currently "no immediate indication" of a decline in the number of Indian students coming to Canada if the crisis were to escalate further, especially affecting students supported by government scholarships, the Indian government might consider directing them to other countries known for their excellent universities, such as Australia, the UK, or the US. This, too, could have economic consequences resulting from the ongoing crisis, according to Medhora's analysis.