Last year, a lot of students from other countries who wanted to study in the US couldn't because many were rejected. The F-1 visa refusal rate went up to 36% in 2023, which means 253,355 students were told no, even more than in 2022. Also, the rate of refusal for student visas was almost double that of other types of visas, as shown in data from the US government shared by David J. Bier from The Cato Institute.

Just like in Australia, the growing rate of student visa refusals in the US seems to be causing fewer people to apply. With fewer applications and fewer approvals, there has been a 31% drop in visa issuances between 2015 and 2023.

Mr. Bier has looked into how these changes are affecting the overall US economy: "It's important to know that students must already be accepted into a government-approved university before they can even apply for an F-1 visa. This means that the US Department of State turned away 253,355 students who would have likely spent around $30,000 per year or $7.6 billion annually on tuition and living expenses. Over four years, this adds up to $30.4 billion in lost economic benefits for the United States."

To give some context, NAFSA last measured the economic impact of international students in the US in November 2023. At that time, they reported that "The over one million international students at US colleges and universities contributed more than US$40 billion to the US economy during the 2022-2023 academic year—up by nearly US$6.3 billion (almost 19%) compared to the prior academic year—and supported more than 368,000 jobs."

Various factors contribute to this situation, but Mr. Bier highlights one key factor: the increase in Indian applicants. In 2023, these applicants received 29% of all visa approvals. Historically, Indian students have faced higher refusal rates compared to Chinese students. This suggests that there were likely a considerable number of Indian student applications in 2023, although the US government has not provided specific data on visa refusals by nationality.

Regardless of the statistical factors contributing to the increasing refusal rate, Mr. Bier suggests that it's likely the considerable subjectivity exercised by US immigration officials during student visa interviews that's primarily driving this trend, rather than any official immigration strategy. He illustrates this point with the example of Don Heflin, the head of the Consular Affairs division in India, who, in 2022, described his team's approach to visa interviews:

"Bring your bank statements just in case the vice consul asks, but we're not focusing on them as much as we used to. We understand that Indian families usually find a way to manage finances.… Mostly, it's about explaining why you've chosen this school and curriculum. It's what we call the 'Elevator Pitch' in American English. You'll have about a minute and a half to explain why this school is the right fit for you. Don't come and recite facts about the campus or its history.… Look, I have many Indian friends. I understand that your father may have already decided where you'll go to school and what you'll study. That's okay. Just tell us what he decided and show us why it makes sense for you."

Mr. Bier describes this practice as "absurd" and is astonished that the US government would forego potential billions of dollars in revenue from prospective students simply because they've rehearsed their 'elevator pitch' on why they want to study computer science in Kansas. He deems it completely irrelevant.

He argues, "The administration should increase transparency regarding student visa rejections and implement a fair and consistent policy for reviews." Mr. Bier's stance echoes the concerns of international education stakeholders in Australia, who worry about the subjectivity applied by their country's immigration officials when deciding which students to admit.

While the US stands out among the "Big Four" destinations by not adjusting immigration policies to limit international student numbers this year, its current visa refusal rate still means that, like Australia, Canada, and the UK, it's becoming less accessible to many international students compared to before.