Canadian study permit approvals are projected to drop by 45% in 2024, far exceeding the 35% reduction initially planned under the controversial international student caps, according to new IRCC data analyzed by ApplyBoard.

“The impact of the caps was significantly underestimated,” said ApplyBoard founder Meti Basiri. “The rapid policy changes caused confusion, affected student interest, and disrupted institutional operations. These changes did not consider the vital role international students play in Canada's economy and communities.”

The 2024 caps, introduced in January, led to stricter rules, including changes to post-graduate work permit (PGWP) eligibility, resulting in significant declines in approvals. For the first 10 months of the year, approval rates hovered just above 50%, with an estimated 280,000 permits approved, marking the lowest non-pandemic approval rate since 2019.

Approval rates for capped programs dropped by 60%, while even cap-exempt programs saw a 27% decline. Major source countries like India, Nigeria, and Nepal experienced over 50% declines, highlighting the widespread disruption caused by the policies.

A September 2024 IRCC policy update further tightened rules, with four out of five international student counselors surveyed by ApplyBoard agreeing that Canada had become a less attractive study destination. Stakeholders criticized the federal government for introducing frequent changes without first assessing the impact of the initial caps.

Post-secondary programs were hit hardest, with new international enrollments at colleges dropping by 60%. However, some countries, including Senegal, Guinea, and Vietnam, showed year-over-year growth, suggesting areas for potential diversity in student recruitment. Ghana also remains a promising source country, with approval rates 175% higher than in 2022, despite a slight decline from 2023.

At the CBIE conference in November 2024, immigration minister Marc Miller defended the policies, rejecting claims that the caps and restrictions were an overcorrection. However, many stakeholders remain concerned about the damage to Canada's reputation as a top study destination.

Study permit approvals have dropped significantly across all provinces, with Ontario and Nova Scotia being hit the hardest, seeing declines of 55% and 54.5%, respectively. Ontario, which approved over half of all study permits in 2023, has felt the largest impact.

While the number of applications processed by IRCC in 2024 dropped by 35%, meeting government targets, approval rates have fallen behind. Minister Marc Miller was only able to limit the number of applications processed, not the number of permits approved.

The original target of 360,000 approved permits was based on an estimated 60% approval rate, with a cap of 605,000 applications. However, new policies, including adding postgraduate programs to the 2025 cap, suggest approvals will stay below pre-cap levels.

Basiri noted, “While student numbers may align with IRCC's targets, the impact on Canada's reputation and institutional preparedness will be critical to monitor in 2025.”

Source: THEPIENEWS