Recent data from the UK Home Office confirms that the ban on student dependants, which came into effect in January 2024, has had a substantial impact on international student demand. The policy change means that most students are no longer allowed to bring family members with them to the UK, with exceptions made only for those enrolled in research-based postgraduate programmes or government-sponsored scholarship schemes.

Before the ban, students on taught master's courses were permitted to bring dependants, which made these programmes particularly popular in emerging markets. Since the rule change, interest in these courses has fallen. According to Times Higher Education, the proportion of study visas issued for master's courses dropped from 66% in 2023 to 61% in 2024. The top three countries receiving master's study visas in 2024 were India, China, and Pakistan.

There was an 84% decrease in dependant visa applications in the year leading up to January 2025, while student visa applications also fell throughout 2024. However, the decline in dependant applications was far steeper.

A 14% Drop in Sponsored Study Visas

In 2024, a total of 393,125 sponsored study visas were issued to international students, marking a 14% decrease compared to 2023. This drop aligns closely with the 15% decline predicted in an earlier ICEF Insights report, which noted that the biggest declines were likely to come from non-EU countries, particularly Nigeria and India.

As anticipated, visa issuances to Nigerian and Indian students fell sharply, dropping by 55% and 26%, respectively, between 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, visas issued to Chinese students declined by only 6%.

China's relatively modest decline meant that it regained its position as the UK's top source country for international students, overtaking India. In 2024, China accounted for 102,940 study visas, compared to 88,860 for India.

Indian student visa numbers fell at both the undergraduate and master's levels. Commenting on LinkedIn, Nicholas Dillon, Director at Nous Group, noted the significant drop in Indian undergraduate numbers, despite the fact that undergraduates were not directly impacted by the dependant visa changes. This suggests that Indian students are now considering a broader range of study destinations.

Pakistan Rises to Third Place, Nepal Continues to Grow

Nigeria's 55% decline in student visa issuances, combined with a 13% increase from Pakistan, has resulted in Pakistan overtaking Nigeria as the UK's third-largest source of international students.

Despite the UK government's crackdown on dependants, Pakistani student demand for UK education remained robust. Even though the number of dependant visas for Pakistanis fell by 85%, the overall number of student visas issued to Pakistanis increased at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels.

Similarly, Nepal showed strong growth, with a 44% increase in study visas compared to 2023. Demand from Nepal rose at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels, making it the third-largest undergraduate market and sixth-largest overall for UK universities.

Declines in Other Key Non-EU Markets

Several other important non-EU student markets also weakened in 2024. Among the UK's top 10 source countries, the biggest declines in study visa issuances were seen in:

• Bangladesh (-31%)
• Saudi Arabia (-16%)
• Hong Kong (-15%)
• Malaysia (-12%)

The sharp drop in Bangladeshi student numbers is likely linked to the dependants ban, as Bangladesh has had a high dependant-to-main-applicant ratio in recent years.

Meanwhile, declining student numbers from Malaysia and Hong Kong may be due to the rise of alternative study destinations in Asia. Both Malaysia and Hong Kong are working towards becoming regional education hubs. Malaysia, for instance, has set a target of attracting 250,000 international students by 2025, while Hong Kong has seen a 20% increase in its international undergraduate student population since 2019/20.

Elsewhere, Middle Eastern countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expanding their higher education offerings by opening more international branch campuses, making them increasingly attractive alternatives for students in the region.

Source: ICEF